Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone close by, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
