Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
